Middle powers risk losing their seat at the table as private firms reshape geopolitics

Middle powers are losing ground in global affairs as private companies, not national governments, increasingly drive outcomes on the issues that matter most, from supply chains to artificial intelligence to space. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney put the stakes bluntly at Davos earlier this year, warning mid-sized nations that they need to secure a genuine seat at the geopolitical table or risk being treated as an afterthought by the powers that do.

The argument applies to a wide band of countries often grouped under the middle power label, including Canada, Germany, Japan, India, Brazil, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam, none of which can match the scale of the United States or China but which have traditionally relied on alliances, multilateral institutions and trade relationships to punch above their weight. That model is being tested as private firms accumulate influence that increasingly rivals or exceeds what many of these states can bring to bear on their own.

The scale of that corporate influence is striking. Nvidia's market capitalization now sits near the size of Germany's entire economy, while Apple and Amazon carry valuations comparable to the GDP of mid-sized nations. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company effectively controls critical chokepoints in global electronics supply chains, Starlink has become a key source of battlefield intelligence in Ukraine, and biotech firms, rather than governments, led the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines worldwide. In space and advanced computing, companies including SpaceX, Blue Origin and Anthropic are increasingly setting the pace of development that governments once directed.

Artificial intelligence sharpens the picture further. The US and China together account for the large majority of notable AI models being developed globally, roughly 59 and 35 respectively by one recent count, leaving most middle powers as technology takers rather than developers of frontier systems. Private AI labs have also begun taking on roles once reserved for national intelligence services: Anthropic has disclosed disrupting attempts by state-linked actors tied to Iran, China and Russia to misuse its Claude models, a function historically associated with government agencies rather than private companies.

For middle powers, the implication is that traditional diplomatic tools, alliances, trade agreements, multilateral forums, may no longer be sufficient on their own. Carney's warning suggests that nations unwilling to engage directly with the companies now shaping technology, supply chains and security will find themselves negotiating from a weaker position, or simply left out of decisions that increasingly happen in corporate boardrooms rather than government ministries.