AI, climate shocks and private capital are splitting Asia's growth story in two

Asia's economies are proving broadly resilient against energy shocks and a worsening cost-of-living squeeze, but the region's prosperity is splitting unevenly, with access to AI investment, climate pressures and private capital flows increasingly determining which countries pull ahead and which fall behind, according to discussions at the IMF and World Bank's annual meetings in Bangkok, held in Thailand for the first time in 35 years.

India and the ASEAN bloc emerged among the clearer winners in the latest outlook, with growth forecasts for both revised upward, a sign that the AI investment boom and related capital flows are concentrating disproportionately in markets seen as best positioned to capture them. Other economies in the region have not shared equally in that momentum, leaving a widening gap between AI-adjacent growth hubs and countries still waiting for similar tailwinds to materialize.

Officials also flagged a set of headwinds working against that overall resilience. A worsening cost-of-living crisis continues to squeeze households across much of the region, while energy supply shocks have added further strain to economies already managing elevated prices. The IMF separately warned about the risk El Niño poses to food security, a reminder that climate volatility remains a persistent drag working against the growth gains showing up elsewhere in the data.

The combination points to a more fractured picture than a single regional growth number can capture: a handful of economies riding AI-linked investment and private capital inflows to stronger prospects, while others navigate the same energy and cost pressures without a comparable offsetting boost. That divergence is likely to remain a central theme for policymakers gathered in Bangkok as they weigh how to broaden the benefits of AI-driven growth beyond the markets currently capturing most of it.